Chapter 359: 359
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As of January 1990, the proven oil reserves in the Gulf region accounted for 65% of the world's total oil reserves, while providing 43% of the world's daily oil demand. Among them, Iraq and Kuwait are the only two countries. Even after decades of exploitation, their oil reserves still rank in the top ten in the world.
It can be imagined that the turmoil in the Gulf region will have a strong impact on the world's crude oil supply.
When the news of Iraq's invasion of Kuwait came on August 2, the international crude oil price began to soar. By the end of Friday, August 3, the international crude oil price had soared to US $27.63 per barrel, up 29% compared with that before the outbreak of the war.
And it's just the beginning.
Simon's memory, the Kuwait war led to the highest international crude oil prices to 41.07 U.S. dollars.
Many things are not so sure because of the influence of Simon, a big butterfly. However, Simon believes that the impact of the international crude oil price on the $40 high will not be too big.
New York.
Cersei capital headquarters in midtown Manhattan.
Although it is Sunday, cersei capital headquarters is still crowded today.
In addition to the loss of some profits due to the untimely clearance of short positions in the last week before the outbreak of the war, cersei fund management company's layout on various types of crude oil futures contracts basically met expectations.
By the outbreak of the war on August 2, cersei fund management company had established a huge long contract with a total of 25 billion US dollars in the mainstream Brent crude oil futures and WTI crude oil futures, as well as the surrounding light diesel oil futures, unleaded gasoline futures, high sulfur fuel oil futures and other types of crude oil futures.
Cersei capital started to build its position at the end of June, with the international crude oil price as the benchmark, ranging from the lowest price of $13 to $20 the day before the outbreak of the war.
Starting next week, cersei capital will gradually clear its long contracts.
In fact, it has been going on since the day of the war.
In fact, it's because I have to take the initiative to do so.
Simon wants to start clearing when the price of crude oil approaches or reaches $40, but it's not realistic at all.
As we all know, futures trading is a zero sum game. If someone makes money, someone will lose money, and the profit and loss are equal.
For example, cersei capital itself, if this time it goes in the wrong direction and establishes a crude oil futures short position of up to US $25 billion, then once the war breaks out, the international crude oil price will soar from US $20 before the war to the highest US $40, with an increase of 100%. According to the futures contract, cersei capital will theoretically lose us $25 billion to the other gambling party.
Cersei's capital account, however, has less than $6 billion.
If the Bulls insist that cersei capital can refuse to close the position within the loss range, cersei capital can only default.
The default phenomenon in futures trading is very rare, but it is not without, such as the sharp fluctuation of crude oil price caused by the sudden war.
Perhaps before the outbreak of the war, some futures speculators had the hope that they could continue to supplement the margin in case of the outbreak of the war. After the outbreak of the war, the hope was shattered, and many futures speculators directly chose to give up. Some speculators who took nearly 20 times of high leverage directly defaulted on the day of the outbreak of the war.
However, the default of speculators does not mean the default of futures contracts.
This is because there are two guarantees between futures brokers and futures exchanges.
When the futures speculator's account funds are insufficient to make up for the loss, as the Party of transaction guarantee, the futures broker will make up the difference to ensure the transaction.
When the funds of the futures broker can not ensure the completion of the transaction, the futures exchange will use its own reserve funds to supplement.
In the most serious case, in order to avoid the collapse of the futures trading system, the national level will participate in the rescue.
In the stock market crash of 1987, the S & P 500 index futures set out the U.S. national rescue measures because of the huge fluctuation of Black Monday. On the night of October 19, through the direct intervention of the federal Treasury Department, the major banks of the United States were able to provide huge funds to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange to avoid the default of futures trading.
Because of the sudden outbreak of the Kuwait war, this time, crude oil futures trading also touched the exchange level.
This also means that if it is a US $5 billion bet on US $5 billion, the winner will not only get us $5 billion from the speculators, but also a large amount of money subsidized by futures brokers and futures exchanges to ensure the delivery of contracts.
In the conference room of cersei capital headquarters.
At the end of the day's meeting, it was evening, and the summer sun broke into this office building with excellent view through the cracks of Manhattan high-rise buildings.
Sending everyone away, Janet got up and sat down in Simon's arms, humming that she was tired.
Simon smiles and helps her to knead and relax, saying: "after this time, maybe many futures brokers will close down directly?"
Since the big market has spread to the exchange level, the intermediary brokers are not immune. They often need to fill a large amount of money to ensure the delivery of the contract. Comparatively speaking, the profits of bulls will not feed back too many brokers. They can only get a commission they deserve."It's estimated that there are hundreds of them," Janet said, squinting lazily. "In addition to the large brokers supported by the parent companies such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan and Citigroup, many small and medium-sized independent brokers are basically closing down."
Few speculators can directly cooperate with the futures exchange, which usually requires futures brokers to provide collateral.
There are many types of futures brokers, and the larger ones are usually attached to the futures brokerage departments of large investment banks. However, there are numerous small and medium-sized futures brokers in North America and all over the world.
Simon's memory, because of this big market, countless futures brokers all over the world have declared bankruptcy, and the whole industry will not recover for many years in the future.
What's more, this incident also caused another serious consequence, the sharp shrinkage of crude oil futures trading.
For a long time, there won't be many short positions in the market. Therefore, cersei capital can't build large-scale positions, so it can only turn its attention to other fields.
With the outbreak of the war, stock markets around the world have fallen sharply.
On August 2 and August 3, the S & P 500 index fell from 371 to 356 at the close on Friday. Then, before the outbreak of the Gulf War, the S & P 500 index is likely to fall to about 300. At the beginning, in order to focus on the crude oil futures market, cersei capital did not distract to establish S & P 500 index futures short.
Now entering the arena, it is also impossible to do much more.
According to the plan, cersei fund management company will complete the clearance next week. However, because the futures trading market is in a downturn, although the capital reserve has increased significantly, it is difficult to carry out too large trading afterwards.
In the twinkling of an eye over the weekend, into the trading day, crude oil prices continue to soar.
The situation in the Gulf has also continued to be turbulent.
On August 7, the Bush Administration officially approved Operation Desert Shield, and the federal army officially stationed in Saudi Arabia to resist the possible invasion of Iraq.
However, when the "Desert Shield" plan was implemented, a wave of anti war broke out in the United States. Both the media and the public are very worried that the Bush administration may drag the country into another protracted "Vietnam War.".
The direct confrontation between federal forces in Saudi Arabia and Iraqi forces also means that the original promise of the United States not to interfere in the dispute between Iraq and Kuwait has become empty talk.
At the same time, from August 6 to August 10, cersei capital also quickly completed the long position closing work.
the reason why the long contracts with more than 20 billion US dollars can be completed so quickly is that both short futures speculators, futures brokers and futures exchanges are more urgent than cersei capital. With the rapid development of international crude oil prices, cersei capital's long position closing has become more and more urgent Continue to rise, every day delay, the loss will increase by one point.
On August 11, when cersei fund management completed all the financial settlement summary, the hedge fund's net asset value had increased from the initial $3.5 billion to $12.637.21 million. In less than eight months, cersei fund management company has achieved more than 260% return on investment.
Although Simon only accounted for $1 billion of the $3.5 billion principal this time, the commission percentage of the fund was fixed at 20%, and 30% of the 20% commission percentage was distributed to other partners of cersei fund management company. However, based on the net asset value of US $12.637 billion at this time, Simon's profit and commission beyond the principal of US $1 billion will reach US $3.367 billion.
In the remaining months of the second half of the year, even if cersei's return is zero, Simon's total cash hoarding overseas will be close to $8 billion after the year-end settlement.
With such a large amount of cash, Simon can basically complete the acquisition of MCA through his own funds, even considering the factor of capital gains tax transferred to China.
In addition, although Simon can only get one third of cersei fund management company's profit this time, he has eliminated some potential risks brought by his rapid rise in recent years through profit sharing to a large extent.
What's more, it seems that a large part of the profits of more than 9 billion US dollars have been distributed. However, in addition to the Johnston family, which owns 500 million US dollars of principal, cutting off another big piece of cake, other Australian and American investors have been scattered, and their income is basically less than one tenth of that of Western Mongolia.
Simon himself is still the one whose profit is far more than that of other investors.
After a week in New York, Simon and Janet returned to Los Angeles together.
Cersei fund management team received the next stage of instruction is free hunting, the couple no longer need to watch.
With a 30% stake in cersei fund management company, the six partners of the team are very likely to get hundreds of millions of dollars of dividends this year, and even ordinary employees have a huge expected bonus, so the team can be described as complacent.
Back in Los Angeles, it's Monday, August 13.
The summer program in North America has come to an end and has not been greatly affected by the outbreak of the war.On July 27, danielis entertainment and Disney's "shaking the cradle's hand" was released in North American Theaters, with 1632 open screens. During the first seven days of the first week from July 27 to August 2, the box office revenue was 21.18 million US dollars, which was not as good as the previous "sleeping with the enemy", but also reached the sales level of more than 10000.
In the second week from August 3 to August 9, the box office of "shaking the cradle's hand" fell 23% the next week, closing another $16.33 million.
Two weeks worth $37.51 million, compared with the production cost of $11 million and the publicity budget of $6 million, the film has begun to generate profits in half a month. However, it is difficult for the Shaker's cradle hand to break the box office by 100 million. It is estimated that the box office in North America will be around 80 million US dollars.
Although it didn't meet the expectation, a low-cost thriller with an investment of 11 million US dollars can earn 80 million US dollars at the box office in North America alone. There is nothing dissatisfied with Disney or Denise.
On August 10, Denise Entertainment's new world pictures released "ghost 3".
The series of horror films, which started at the end of the summer season, started with 1329 screens. The box office in the first week was $6.13 million, which is neither excellent nor failure. It is estimated that the total box office in North America is still between $15 million and $20 million, and Denise entertainment can make a profit.
However, because there is no big breakthrough in two consecutive sequels, New World Pictures plans to release subsequent sequels directly through video and cable TV platforms. On the one hand, it can save costs, on the other hand, it can make room for other films produced by new world film industry.
As of August 9, the cumulative box office of "ghost love" at the beginning of danielis entertainment summer season has reached 149 million US dollars in 11 weeks, and the box office of the film is still around 7 million US dollars in a single week. Relying on the strong box office curve, the overall box office figure continues to steadily move towards 200 million US dollars.
Sleeping with the enemy, a film CO produced by Fox, grossed 93.81 million US dollars in the eighth week of its release, and is expected to hit a higher box office figure.
As of August 9, the North American box office of Ninja Turtle, which was released only five weeks ago, has reached 103.53 million US dollars, exceeding 100 million US dollars ahead of sleeping with the enemy. However, the box office of Ninja tortoise has fallen to less than $5 million a week due to the continuous large decline, and the box office potential is expected to be less than $20 million.
Regardless of the large amount of money accumulated overseas, only Denise entertainment brought Simon a net profit of more than US $500 million in the first half of the year. In order to avoid the continuous depreciation of large amount of cash in hand, Simon also began to consider more investment in other directions while taking into account the acquisition of MCA.
Generally speaking, the reason why the rich can get richer and richer is roughly the same.
Of course, the acquisition of MCA is still the top priority of Simon's plan.
The outbreak of the Kuwait war triggered the decline of global stock markets, and MCA was not immune.
Only in the week from August 6 to August 10, the share price of MCA fell by 9%, and the share price fell to less than $40. By the new week of August 13, the opening price of MCA stock had fallen to $39.25, which could not stop the good news that Panasonic intended to buy MCA.
Panasonic's acquisition of MCA has not been made public since Michael owitz's last trip to Tokyo, but it is no longer a secret in the eyes of many people. Michael owitz's secret meeting with MCA board members was also recently revealed.
however, because of the bursting of the Japanese economic bubble, Japanese giants must first ensure that their operations will not be affected by the economic crisis, so they generally slow down the pace of overseas expansion.
Sony's acquisition of Columbia Pictures this year has also aroused Panasonic's vigilance by paying "tuition fees" in Hollywood.
Although Matsushita has accumulated more than US $12 billion overseas through the accumulation of previous years, which is enough to easily complete the acquisition of MCA, the industry generally predicts that Matsushita's acquisition of MCA will be conservative, and it is impossible to be as extravagant as Sony.
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As of January 1990, the proven oil reserves in the Gulf region accounted for 65% of the world's total oil reserves, while providing 43% of the world's daily oil demand. Among them, Iraq and Kuwait are the only two countries. Even after decades of exploitation, their oil reserves still rank in the top ten in the world.
It can be imagined that the turmoil in the Gulf region will have a strong impact on the world's crude oil supply.
When the news of Iraq's invasion of Kuwait came on August 2, the international crude oil price began to soar. By the end of Friday, August 3, the international crude oil price had soared to US $27.63 per barrel, up 29% compared with that before the outbreak of the war.
And it's just the beginning.
Simon's memory, the Kuwait war led to the highest international crude oil prices to 41.07 U.S. dollars.
Many things are not so sure because of the influence of Simon, a big butterfly. However, Simon believes that the impact of the international crude oil price on the $40 high will not be too big.
New York.
Cersei capital headquarters in midtown Manhattan.
Although it is Sunday, cersei capital headquarters is still crowded today.
In addition to the loss of some profits due to the untimely clearance of short positions in the last week before the outbreak of the war, cersei fund management company's layout on various types of crude oil futures contracts basically met expectations.
By the outbreak of the war on August 2, cersei fund management company had established a huge long contract with a total of 25 billion US dollars in the mainstream Brent crude oil futures and WTI crude oil futures, as well as the surrounding light diesel oil futures, unleaded gasoline futures, high sulfur fuel oil futures and other types of crude oil futures.
Cersei capital started to build its position at the end of June, with the international crude oil price as the benchmark, ranging from the lowest price of $13 to $20 the day before the outbreak of the war.
Starting next week, cersei capital will gradually clear its long contracts.
In fact, it has been going on since the day of the war.
In fact, it's because I have to take the initiative to do so.
Simon wants to start clearing when the price of crude oil approaches or reaches $40, but it's not realistic at all.
As we all know, futures trading is a zero sum game. If someone makes money, someone will lose money, and the profit and loss are equal.
For example, cersei capital itself, if this time it goes in the wrong direction and establishes a crude oil futures short position of up to US $25 billion, then once the war breaks out, the international crude oil price will soar from US $20 before the war to the highest US $40, with an increase of 100%. According to the futures contract, cersei capital will theoretically lose us $25 billion to the other gambling party.
Cersei's capital account, however, has less than $6 billion.
If the Bulls insist that cersei capital can refuse to close the position within the loss range, cersei capital can only default.
The default phenomenon in futures trading is very rare, but it is not without, such as the sharp fluctuation of crude oil price caused by the sudden war.
Perhaps before the outbreak of the war, some futures speculators had the hope that they could continue to supplement the margin in case of the outbreak of the war. After the outbreak of the war, the hope was shattered, and many futures speculators directly chose to give up. Some speculators who took nearly 20 times of high leverage directly defaulted on the day of the outbreak of the war.
However, the default of speculators does not mean the default of futures contracts.
This is because there are two guarantees between futures brokers and futures exchanges.
When the futures speculator's account funds are insufficient to make up for the loss, as the Party of transaction guarantee, the futures broker will make up the difference to ensure the transaction.
When the funds of the futures broker can not ensure the completion of the transaction, the futures exchange will use its own reserve funds to supplement.
In the most serious case, in order to avoid the collapse of the futures trading system, the national level will participate in the rescue.
In the stock market crash of 1987, the S & P 500 index futures set out the U.S. national rescue measures because of the huge fluctuation of Black Monday. On the night of October 19, through the direct intervention of the federal Treasury Department, the major banks of the United States were able to provide huge funds to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange to avoid the default of futures trading.
Because of the sudden outbreak of the Kuwait war, this time, crude oil futures trading also touched the exchange level.
This also means that if it is a US $5 billion bet on US $5 billion, the winner will not only get us $5 billion from the speculators, but also a large amount of money subsidized by futures brokers and futures exchanges to ensure the delivery of contracts.
In the conference room of cersei capital headquarters.
At the end of the day's meeting, it was evening, and the summer sun broke into this office building with excellent view through the cracks of Manhattan high-rise buildings.
Sending everyone away, Janet got up and sat down in Simon's arms, humming that she was tired.
Simon smiles and helps her to knead and relax, saying: "after this time, maybe many futures brokers will close down directly?"
Since the big market has spread to the exchange level, the intermediary brokers are not immune. They often need to fill a large amount of money to ensure the delivery of the contract. Comparatively speaking, the profits of bulls will not feed back too many brokers. They can only get a commission they deserve."It's estimated that there are hundreds of them," Janet said, squinting lazily. "In addition to the large brokers supported by the parent companies such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan and Citigroup, many small and medium-sized independent brokers are basically closing down."
Few speculators can directly cooperate with the futures exchange, which usually requires futures brokers to provide collateral.
There are many types of futures brokers, and the larger ones are usually attached to the futures brokerage departments of large investment banks. However, there are numerous small and medium-sized futures brokers in North America and all over the world.
Simon's memory, because of this big market, countless futures brokers all over the world have declared bankruptcy, and the whole industry will not recover for many years in the future.
What's more, this incident also caused another serious consequence, the sharp shrinkage of crude oil futures trading.
For a long time, there won't be many short positions in the market. Therefore, cersei capital can't build large-scale positions, so it can only turn its attention to other fields.
With the outbreak of the war, stock markets around the world have fallen sharply.
On August 2 and August 3, the S & P 500 index fell from 371 to 356 at the close on Friday. Then, before the outbreak of the Gulf War, the S & P 500 index is likely to fall to about 300. At the beginning, in order to focus on the crude oil futures market, cersei capital did not distract to establish S & P 500 index futures short.
Now entering the arena, it is also impossible to do much more.
According to the plan, cersei fund management company will complete the clearance next week. However, because the futures trading market is in a downturn, although the capital reserve has increased significantly, it is difficult to carry out too large trading afterwards.
In the twinkling of an eye over the weekend, into the trading day, crude oil prices continue to soar.
The situation in the Gulf has also continued to be turbulent.
On August 7, the Bush Administration officially approved Operation Desert Shield, and the federal army officially stationed in Saudi Arabia to resist the possible invasion of Iraq.
However, when the "Desert Shield" plan was implemented, a wave of anti war broke out in the United States. Both the media and the public are very worried that the Bush administration may drag the country into another protracted "Vietnam War.".
The direct confrontation between federal forces in Saudi Arabia and Iraqi forces also means that the original promise of the United States not to interfere in the dispute between Iraq and Kuwait has become empty talk.
At the same time, from August 6 to August 10, cersei capital also quickly completed the long position closing work.
the reason why the long contracts with more than 20 billion US dollars can be completed so quickly is that both short futures speculators, futures brokers and futures exchanges are more urgent than cersei capital. With the rapid development of international crude oil prices, cersei capital's long position closing has become more and more urgent Continue to rise, every day delay, the loss will increase by one point.
On August 11, when cersei fund management completed all the financial settlement summary, the hedge fund's net asset value had increased from the initial $3.5 billion to $12.637.21 million. In less than eight months, cersei fund management company has achieved more than 260% return on investment.
Although Simon only accounted for $1 billion of the $3.5 billion principal this time, the commission percentage of the fund was fixed at 20%, and 30% of the 20% commission percentage was distributed to other partners of cersei fund management company. However, based on the net asset value of US $12.637 billion at this time, Simon's profit and commission beyond the principal of US $1 billion will reach US $3.367 billion.
In the remaining months of the second half of the year, even if cersei's return is zero, Simon's total cash hoarding overseas will be close to $8 billion after the year-end settlement.
With such a large amount of cash, Simon can basically complete the acquisition of MCA through his own funds, even considering the factor of capital gains tax transferred to China.
In addition, although Simon can only get one third of cersei fund management company's profit this time, he has eliminated some potential risks brought by his rapid rise in recent years through profit sharing to a large extent.
What's more, it seems that a large part of the profits of more than 9 billion US dollars have been distributed. However, in addition to the Johnston family, which owns 500 million US dollars of principal, cutting off another big piece of cake, other Australian and American investors have been scattered, and their income is basically less than one tenth of that of Western Mongolia.
Simon himself is still the one whose profit is far more than that of other investors.
After a week in New York, Simon and Janet returned to Los Angeles together.
Cersei fund management team received the next stage of instruction is free hunting, the couple no longer need to watch.
With a 30% stake in cersei fund management company, the six partners of the team are very likely to get hundreds of millions of dollars of dividends this year, and even ordinary employees have a huge expected bonus, so the team can be described as complacent.
Back in Los Angeles, it's Monday, August 13.
The summer program in North America has come to an end and has not been greatly affected by the outbreak of the war.On July 27, danielis entertainment and Disney's "shaking the cradle's hand" was released in North American Theaters, with 1632 open screens. During the first seven days of the first week from July 27 to August 2, the box office revenue was 21.18 million US dollars, which was not as good as the previous "sleeping with the enemy", but also reached the sales level of more than 10000.
In the second week from August 3 to August 9, the box office of "shaking the cradle's hand" fell 23% the next week, closing another $16.33 million.
Two weeks worth $37.51 million, compared with the production cost of $11 million and the publicity budget of $6 million, the film has begun to generate profits in half a month. However, it is difficult for the Shaker's cradle hand to break the box office by 100 million. It is estimated that the box office in North America will be around 80 million US dollars.
Although it didn't meet the expectation, a low-cost thriller with an investment of 11 million US dollars can earn 80 million US dollars at the box office in North America alone. There is nothing dissatisfied with Disney or Denise.
On August 10, Denise Entertainment's new world pictures released "ghost 3".
The series of horror films, which started at the end of the summer season, started with 1329 screens. The box office in the first week was $6.13 million, which is neither excellent nor failure. It is estimated that the total box office in North America is still between $15 million and $20 million, and Denise entertainment can make a profit.
However, because there is no big breakthrough in two consecutive sequels, New World Pictures plans to release subsequent sequels directly through video and cable TV platforms. On the one hand, it can save costs, on the other hand, it can make room for other films produced by new world film industry.
As of August 9, the cumulative box office of "ghost love" at the beginning of danielis entertainment summer season has reached 149 million US dollars in 11 weeks, and the box office of the film is still around 7 million US dollars in a single week. Relying on the strong box office curve, the overall box office figure continues to steadily move towards 200 million US dollars.
Sleeping with the enemy, a film CO produced by Fox, grossed 93.81 million US dollars in the eighth week of its release, and is expected to hit a higher box office figure.
As of August 9, the North American box office of Ninja Turtle, which was released only five weeks ago, has reached 103.53 million US dollars, exceeding 100 million US dollars ahead of sleeping with the enemy. However, the box office of Ninja tortoise has fallen to less than $5 million a week due to the continuous large decline, and the box office potential is expected to be less than $20 million.
Regardless of the large amount of money accumulated overseas, only Denise entertainment brought Simon a net profit of more than US $500 million in the first half of the year. In order to avoid the continuous depreciation of large amount of cash in hand, Simon also began to consider more investment in other directions while taking into account the acquisition of MCA.
Generally speaking, the reason why the rich can get richer and richer is roughly the same.
Of course, the acquisition of MCA is still the top priority of Simon's plan.
The outbreak of the Kuwait war triggered the decline of global stock markets, and MCA was not immune.
Only in the week from August 6 to August 10, the share price of MCA fell by 9%, and the share price fell to less than $40. By the new week of August 13, the opening price of MCA stock had fallen to $39.25, which could not stop the good news that Panasonic intended to buy MCA.
Panasonic's acquisition of MCA has not been made public since Michael owitz's last trip to Tokyo, but it is no longer a secret in the eyes of many people. Michael owitz's secret meeting with MCA board members was also recently revealed.
however, because of the bursting of the Japanese economic bubble, Japanese giants must first ensure that their operations will not be affected by the economic crisis, so they generally slow down the pace of overseas expansion.
Sony's acquisition of Columbia Pictures this year has also aroused Panasonic's vigilance by paying "tuition fees" in Hollywood.
Although Matsushita has accumulated more than US $12 billion overseas through the accumulation of previous years, which is enough to easily complete the acquisition of MCA, the industry generally predicts that Matsushita's acquisition of MCA will be conservative, and it is impossible to be as extravagant as Sony.
As of January 1990, the proven oil reserves in the Gulf region accounted for 65% of the world's total oil reserves, while providing 43% of the world's daily oil demand. Among them, Iraq and Kuwait are the only two countries. Even after decades of exploitation, their oil reserves still rank in the top ten in the world. It can be imagined that the turmoil in the Gulf region will have a strong impact on the world's crude oil supply. When the news of Iraq's invasion of Kuwait came on August 2, the international crude oil price began to soar. By the end of Friday, August 3, the international crude oil price had soared to US $27.63 per barrel, up 29% compared with that before the outbreak of the war. And it's just the beginning. Simon's memory, the Kuwait war led to the highest international crude oil prices to 41.07 U.S. dollars. Many things are not so sure because of the influence of Simon, a big butterfly. However, Simon believes that the impact of the international crude oil price on the $40 high will not be too big. New York. Cersei capital headquarters in midtown Manhattan. Although it is Sunday, cersei capital headquarters is still crowded today. In addition to the loss of some profits due to the untimely clearance of short positions in the last week before the outbreak of the war, cersei fund management company's layout on various types of crude oil futures contracts basically met expectations. By the outbreak of the war on August 2, cersei fund management company had established a huge long contract with a total of 25 billion US dollars in the mainstream Brent crude oil futures and WTI crude oil futures, as well as the surrounding light diesel oil futures, unleaded gasoline futures, high sulfur fuel oil futures and other types of crude oil futures. Cersei capital started to build its position at the end of June, with the international crude oil price as the benchmark, ranging from the lowest price of $13 to $20 the day before the outbreak of the war. Starting next week, cersei capital will gradually clear its long contracts. In fact, it has been going on since the day of the war. In fact, it's because I have to take the initiative to do so. Simon wants to start clearing when the price of crude oil approaches or reaches $40, but it's not realistic at all. As we all know, futures trading is a zero sum game. If someone makes money, someone will lose money, and the profit and loss are equal. For example, cersei capital itself, if this time it goes in the wrong direction and establishes a crude oil futures short position of up to US $25 billion, then once the war breaks out, the international crude oil price will soar from US $20 before the war to the highest US $40, with an increase of 100%. According to the futures contract, cersei capital will theoretically lose us $25 billion to the other gambling party. Cersei's capital account, however, has less than $6 billion. If the Bulls insist that cersei capital can refuse to close the position within the loss range, cersei capital can only default. The default phenomenon in futures trading is very rare, but it is not without, such as the sharp fluctuation of crude oil price caused by the sudden war. Perhaps before the outbreak of the war, some futures speculators had the hope that they could continue to supplement the margin in case of the outbreak of the war. After the outbreak of the war, the hope was shattered, and many futures speculators directly chose to give up. Some speculators who took nearly 20 times of high leverage directly defaulted on the day of the outbreak of the war. However, the default of speculators does not mean the default of futures contracts. This is because there are two guarantees between futures brokers and futures exchanges. When the futures speculator's account funds are insufficient to make up for the loss, as the Party of transaction guarantee, the futures broker will make up the difference to ensure the transaction. When the funds of the futures broker can not ensure the completion of the transaction, the futures exchange will use its own reserve funds to supplement. In the most serious case, in order to avoid the collapse of the futures trading system, the national level will participate in the rescue. In the stock market crash of 1987, the S & P 500 index futures set out the U.S. national rescue measures because of the huge fluctuation of Black Monday. On the night of October 19, through the direct intervention of the federal Treasury Department, the major banks of the United States were able to provide huge funds to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange to avoid the default of futures trading. Because of the sudden outbreak of the Kuwait war, this time, crude oil futures trading also touched the exchange level. This also means that if it is a US $5 billion bet on US $5 billion, the winner will not only get us $5 billion from the speculators, but also a large amount of money subsidized by futures brokers and futures exchanges to ensure the delivery of contracts. In the conference room of cersei capital headquarters. At the end of the day's meeting, it was evening, and the summer sun broke into this office building with excellent view through the cracks of Manhattan high-rise buildings. Sending everyone away, Janet got up and sat down in Simon's arms, humming that she was tired. Simon smiles and helps her to knead and relax, saying: "after this time, maybe many futures brokers will close down directly?" Since the big market has spread to the exchange level, the intermediary brokers are not immune. They often need to fill a large amount of money to ensure the delivery of the contract. Comparatively speaking, the profits of bulls will not feed back too many brokers. They can only get a commission they deserve."It's estimated that there are hundreds of them," Janet said, squinting lazily. "In addition to the large brokers supported by the parent companies such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan and Citigroup, many small and medium-sized independent brokers are basically closing down." Few speculators can directly cooperate with the futures exchange, which usually requires futures brokers to provide collateral. There are many types of futures brokers, and the larger ones are usually attached to the futures brokerage departments of large investment banks. However, there are numerous small and medium-sized futures brokers in North America and all over the world. Simon's memory, because of this big market, countless futures brokers all over the world have declared bankruptcy, and the whole industry will not recover for many years in the future. What's more, this incident also caused another serious consequence, the sharp shrinkage of crude oil futures trading. For a long time, there won't be many short positions in the market. Therefore, cersei capital can't build large-scale positions, so it can only turn its attention to other fields. With the outbreak of the war, stock markets around the world have fallen sharply. On August 2 and August 3, the S & P 500 index fell from 371 to 356 at the close on Friday. Then, before the outbreak of the Gulf War, the S & P 500 index is likely to fall to about 300. At the beginning, in order to focus on the crude oil futures market, cersei capital did not distract to establish S & P 500 index futures short. Now entering the arena, it is also impossible to do much more. According to the plan, cersei fund management company will complete the clearance next week. However, because the futures trading market is in a downturn, although the capital reserve has increased significantly, it is difficult to carry out too large trading afterwards. In the twinkling of an eye over the weekend, into the trading day, crude oil prices continue to soar. The situation in the Gulf has also continued to be turbulent. On August 7, the Bush Administration officially approved Operation Desert Shield, and the federal army officially stationed in Saudi Arabia to resist the possible invasion of Iraq. However, when the "Desert Shield" plan was implemented, a wave of anti war broke out in the United States. Both the media and the public are very worried that the Bush administration may drag the country into another protracted "Vietnam War.". The direct confrontation between federal forces in Saudi Arabia and Iraqi forces also means that the original promise of the United States not to interfere in the dispute between Iraq and Kuwait has become empty talk. At the same time, from August 6 to August 10, cersei capital also quickly completed the long position closing work. the reason why the long contracts with more than 20 billion US dollars can be completed so quickly is that both short futures speculators, futures brokers and futures exchanges are more urgent than cersei capital. With the rapid development of international crude oil prices, cersei capital's long position closing has become more and more urgent Continue to rise, every day delay, the loss will increase by one point. On August 11, when cersei fund management completed all the financial settlement summary, the hedge fund's net asset value had increased from the initial $3.5 billion to $12.637.21 million. In less than eight months, cersei fund management company has achieved more than 260% return on investment. Although Simon only accounted for $1 billion of the $3.5 billion principal this time, the commission percentage of the fund was fixed at 20%, and 30% of the 20% commission percentage was distributed to other partners of cersei fund management company. However, based on the net asset value of US $12.637 billion at this time, Simon's profit and commission beyond the principal of US $1 billion will reach US $3.367 billion. In the remaining months of the second half of the year, even if cersei's return is zero, Simon's total cash hoarding overseas will be close to $8 billion after the year-end settlement. With such a large amount of cash, Simon can basically complete the acquisition of MCA through his own funds, even considering the factor of capital gains tax transferred to China. In addition, although Simon can only get one third of cersei fund management company's profit this time, he has eliminated some potential risks brought by his rapid rise in recent years through profit sharing to a large extent. What's more, it seems that a large part of the profits of more than 9 billion US dollars have been distributed. However, in addition to the Johnston family, which owns 500 million US dollars of principal, cutting off another big piece of cake, other Australian and American investors have been scattered, and their income is basically less than one tenth of that of Western Mongolia. Simon himself is still the one whose profit is far more than that of other investors. After a week in New York, Simon and Janet returned to Los Angeles together. Cersei fund management team received the next stage of instruction is free hunting, the couple no longer need to watch. With a 30% stake in cersei fund management company, the six partners of the team are very likely to get hundreds of millions of dollars of dividends this year, and even ordinary employees have a huge expected bonus, so the team can be described as complacent. Back in Los Angeles, it's Monday, August 13. The summer program in North America has come to an end and has not been greatly affected by the outbreak of the war.On July 27, danielis entertainment and Disney's "shaking the cradle's hand" was released in North American Theaters, with 1632 open screens. During the first seven days of the first week from July 27 to August 2, the box office revenue was 21.18 million US dollars, which was not as good as the previous "sleeping with the enemy", but also reached the sales level of more than 10000. In the second week from August 3 to August 9, the box office of "shaking the cradle's hand" fell 23% the next week, closing another $16.33 million. Two weeks worth $37.51 million, compared with the production cost of $11 million and the publicity budget of $6 million, the film has begun to generate profits in half a month. However, it is difficult for the Shaker's cradle hand to break the box office by 100 million. It is estimated that the box office in North America will be around 80 million US dollars. Although it didn't meet the expectation, a low-cost thriller with an investment of 11 million US dollars can earn 80 million US dollars at the box office in North America alone. There is nothing dissatisfied with Disney or Denise. On August 10, Denise Entertainment's new world pictures released "ghost 3". The series of horror films, which started at the end of the summer season, started with 1329 screens. The box office in the first week was $6.13 million, which is neither excellent nor failure. It is estimated that the total box office in North America is still between $15 million and $20 million, and Denise entertainment can make a profit. However, because there is no big breakthrough in two consecutive sequels, New World Pictures plans to release subsequent sequels directly through video and cable TV platforms. On the one hand, it can save costs, on the other hand, it can make room for other films produced by new world film industry. As of August 9, the cumulative box office of "ghost love" at the beginning of danielis entertainment summer season has reached 149 million US dollars in 11 weeks, and the box office of the film is still around 7 million US dollars in a single week. Relying on the strong box office curve, the overall box office figure continues to steadily move towards 200 million US dollars. Sleeping with the enemy, a film CO produced by Fox, grossed 93.81 million US dollars in the eighth week of its release, and is expected to hit a higher box office figure. As of August 9, the North American box office of Ninja Turtle, which was released only five weeks ago, has reached 103.53 million US dollars, exceeding 100 million US dollars ahead of sleeping with the enemy. However, the box office of Ninja tortoise has fallen to less than $5 million a week due to the continuous large decline, and the box office potential is expected to be less than $20 million. Regardless of the large amount of money accumulated overseas, only Denise entertainment brought Simon a net profit of more than US $500 million in the first half of the year. In order to avoid the continuous depreciation of large amount of cash in hand, Simon also began to consider more investment in other directions while taking into account the acquisition of MCA. Generally speaking, the reason why the rich can get richer and richer is roughly the same. Of course, the acquisition of MCA is still the top priority of Simon's plan. The outbreak of the Kuwait war triggered the decline of global stock markets, and MCA was not immune. Only in the week from August 6 to August 10, the share price of MCA fell by 9%, and the share price fell to less than $40. By the new week of August 13, the opening price of MCA stock had fallen to $39.25, which could not stop the good news that Panasonic intended to buy MCA. Panasonic's acquisition of MCA has not been made public since Michael owitz's last trip to Tokyo, but it is no longer a secret in the eyes of many people. Michael owitz's secret meeting with MCA board members was also recently revealed. however, because of the bursting of the Japanese economic bubble, Japanese giants must first ensure that their operations will not be affected by the economic crisis, so they generally slow down the pace of overseas expansion. Sony's acquisition of Columbia Pictures this year has also aroused Panasonic's vigilance by paying "tuition fees" in Hollywood. Although Matsushita has accumulated more than US $12 billion overseas through the accumulation of previous years, which is enough to easily complete the acquisition of MCA, the industry generally predicts that Matsushita's acquisition of MCA will be conservative, and it is impossible to be as extravagant as Sony.
